The Need of the Turkish Electricity Market Towards COP31: Flexibility

In our Under the Spotlight report titled “Crisis Shield of the Electricity Market: Renewable Energy”, which we published at the beginning of April,¹ We discussed why the market clearing price (PTF) in Turkey decreased while global energy prices were increasing, and emphasized that the main factor that triggered the decline of PTF was the increasing share of renewable energy sources in electricity production. When we include the April and May observations announced after our report in the analysis, renewableWe see that energy resources continue to direct the electricity market.

While the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity produced in Turkey broke a record by exceeding 70% in April 2026, similar levels continue to be recorded in May. Hydroelectric power plants stand out among renewable energy sources that provide higher production compared to previous years. Produced in the first four months of 2026It is seen that approximately 30% of the total 118.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) electricity is provided by hydroelectric power plants. In the same period of the previous year, this share was 18.8%.

While it is seen that solar and wind also support electricity production from hydroelectric power plants throughout this process, it is noted that the total share of these two sources in electricity production was 22.2% in the first four months of the year. In this regard, in the first 20 days of May, the share of renewable energy sources in electricity production was above historical averages with a share of 71.5%.continues to watch.

The high share of renewable energy sources in electricity production causes the PTF to be lower compared to previous years. Accordingly, it is seen that the MTF in April 2026 decreased by 62.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, decreasing to 921 TL / MWh. In the first twenty days of May, this value is 681.4 TL/MWh.has fallen to its levels. In addition to the low trend, it is noted that the PTF values ​​​​occurring during the day differ between day and night, the PTF increases at night and therefore the uncertainty regarding costs increases. The high share of renewable energy sources in production supports the sustainable operation of electricity systems.This makes the steps to be taken towards flexibility applications such as storage systems and smart meters more important.

“Clean Energy Transformation” will be the priority themes of the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to be held in Antalya in November 2026.² It is noted that issues such as network infrastructure, storage and flexibility mechanisms, as well as energy efficiency, which will contribute to the more effective operation of the system, will also be on the agenda. It is also stated that Turkey will make an upward update on its renewable energy targets for 2035 during the COP31 period.³. Accordingly, taking steps to accelerate the transition from targets to implementation for the flexibility and effective management of electricity systems at COP31 is important for Turkey's electricity market.

Ezgi İpek Koçlu - TSKB Economic Research

[1] https://www.tskb.com.tr/uploads/file/elektrik-piyasasinin-kriz-kalkani-yenilenen-enerji.pdf

[2] https://cop31.tr/#themes

[3] https://yesilekonomi.com/yenilenende-yeni-hedefler-cop31de-aciklamak